In what's become an annual tradition, Greg Lyle from the Innovative Research Group presented some key findings this morning on the state of play in Ontario politics, exactly one year before the province's next election.

On the main question: for whom would you vote if the election were held today, Lyle found decided voters would do this:

Progressive Conservatives  38%

Liberals  34%

New Democrats  17%

Greens  9%

Lyle attributes the soft Liberal numbers to what voters have "read, seen, and heard about the government lately. Every week, there seems to be a new negative story in the papers." He also attributes those numbers to a significant slip in Liberal support, rather than a rise in Conservative fortunes.

McGuinty rode into office seven years ago on a "choose change" platform, and that thirst for change seems to have returned.  Lyle found 55% of voters say it's now time for a change. Only 25% believe McGuinty's Liberals deserve re-election.  Lyle says that number actually isn't terrible for the government. Re-election is possible even if more than half of the public wants you out. 

The Liberal brand is still strong on issues such as health care and education. However, those are unlikely to be the ballot question, Lyle says. 

The Conservatives, conversely, are polling much more strongly than the government on issues such as cutting taxes, fighting crime, and even fixing the economy, which surely will be part of the ballot question. 

The New Democrats, Lyle says, need to hope for an economic recovery. At the moment, they only poll well on issues such as standing up for women's rights and the environment. On fixing the economic downturn, Lyle says the NDP are "just out of the game."

Overwhelmingly, the numbers show there is still plenty of mystery surrounding the outcome of the next election.

McGuinty wins for "who'd make the best premier" (22%, versus 11% for PC leader Tim Hudak and 9% for the NDP's Andrea Horwath). But fully 52% don't know or are undecided.

And on who has the best plan going forward for the province, fully 60% don't know or say no one does.  The premier clocks in at 16%, Hudak at 13%, Horwath at 9%.

Bad news for McGuinty: lots of Ontarians still regard him as a flip-flopper, suggesting he still hasn't overcome his pledge not to raise taxes in his first term. (He famously created a new health insurance premium, after pledging not to raise taxes).

Good news for McGuinty: by a 48-39% margin, people do believe his government has made important achievements.

Bad news for McGuinty: by a 60-27% margin, people believe you can't trust the premier to do what he says he'll do.

More bad news for McGuinty: by a 65-25% margin, people agree with the statement that the premier doesn't listen to those affected by his decisions.

Bad news for Hudak: the highest percentage of Ontarians surveyed think he's too negative.

More bad news for Hudak: by a 46-28% count, people think Mike Harris made Ontario worse. If the Liberals can portray Hudak as the "Son of Harris," that tag could be problematic. 

Good news for Hudak: when asked whether a Hudak government would slash and burn Ontario's social programs, 44% said yes, and 35% said no.

"That number is nowhere near good enough for the Liberals," Lyle says.  "It should be much higher for them to feel comfortable."

Good news for Horwath: the highest percentage of those surveyed say "she cares about people like me."

Another reason the next election will be extremely competitive: "The opposition leaders wear a cloak of invisibility. They got it even before Harry Potter did," says Lyle.

57% don't know Tim Hudak, 56% couldn't name Andrea Horwath.

Lyle says: "whoever defines these people first, wins, unless this becomes an 'anybody but McGuinty' election. This is a wonderful advertising opportunity."

And lest you think the door is completely closed to the NDP, Lyle says, it isn't. The Liberals may argue that only they can save the province "from the scary Conservatives."  Lyle says there's an opportunity for Horwath at a leaders' debate to say, "we need something different rather than these two," which could lead to a minority government.

"That has happened many times in Canadian history," Lyle says, "but it requires both main parties to screw up."

And one more thing. Lyle says the Toronto mayor's race is over and Rob Ford will win. For more on that, watch our program tomorrow night as we present "Us, Them, and Rob Ford."